Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum due to improved macroeconomic conditions and anticipated production cuts from domestic smelters, with a focus on downstream demand performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper prices in Shanghai strengthened, opening higher and closing with a 2.37% increase [1] - The official manufacturing PMI in China for November slightly rose to 49.2, indicating improved economic conditions, with the production index returning to the threshold level [1] - New export orders index saw its largest increase in six months, contributing to a positive macroeconomic atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has reached a consensus among its members to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 to improve market conditions and address the distortion in copper concentrate processing fees [1] - Increased disruptions to overseas mines have led to low processing fees for domestic copper concentrates, putting pressure on smelters [1] - If major domestic smelters implement their production cut plans next year, concerns over supply tightness may intensify [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Guotou Futures indicates that short-term precious metals provide premium sentiment, while the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish for next year's average copper price [1] - Demand driven by liquidity, green carbon, and intelligent computing, combined with low processing fees at the mining end, is expected to support price increases [1] - Short positions are recommended to be held, with attention to changes in capital flow [1]
供应担忧升温 沪铜刷新上市高点【12月1日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-12-01 07:29