开源证券：动储锂电池需求旺盛 产业链供需拐点已至

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that strong downstream demand in sectors such as power, energy storage, and consumer electronics is driving improvements in the supply-demand relationship within the lithium battery industry. The global lithium battery shipment volume is projected to reach 2921.8 GWh by 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% [1] - Domestic lithium battery shipments are expected to reach 2345.8 GWh by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 37%, while overseas shipments are projected at 576.1 GWh, reflecting a 29% increase [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a turning point, with segments that have a favorable market structure and tight capacity already initiating price increases [1] Group 2 - In Europe, the new electric vehicle models are expected to drive sales growth, with a potential acceleration in Q4. However, a decline in sales is anticipated in 2024 due to subsidy reductions and economic slowdowns in some countries. A strong recovery is expected in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by stricter carbon emission regulations and new electric platforms being launched by automakers [2] - The public charging pile industry is projected to see a recovery in growth rates in 2025, following a decline in 2024. The "three-year doubling" action plan for charging piles has been implemented, which is expected to initiate a new investment cycle [3] - The European heat pump market is expected to bottom out in Q4 2024, with a significant recovery anticipated starting in 2025. Exports of heat pumps from China to Europe are projected to increase by 20% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]