Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-01 07:27Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the tightness in copper mines is being transmitted to electrolytic copper, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices reaching new highs [1] - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper mine production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating a commitment to address the supply shortage [2] - CSPT members cover approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of about 1,422,000 tons as of October 2025 [3] Group 2 - The reduction in copper mine production is seen as an inevitable result of the tight supply expected in 2025/2026, with several mines already adjusting their production forecasts downward due to various disruptions [4] - The profitability of smelting companies is increasingly reliant on by-products like sulfuric acid, as the treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have been declining, with spot prices reaching historical lows [5] - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, but regional imbalances may exacerbate tightness in electrolytic copper outside the U.S., particularly due to expectations of U.S. tariffs [6]