股市：确定性趋势来了

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a report claiming he will announce his resignation during an emergency meeting, although this has not been confirmed by mainstream media or official channels [1] - President Trump has indicated that he has identified a successor for the Federal Reserve chair and will announce it soon, with market predictions suggesting a 58% probability that Kevin Hassett will be nominated, who has previously stated that the public can expect lower loan rates under Trump's choice [4] - The article highlights that Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman is set to end on May 15, 2026, and suggests that a more dovish chairman will likely lead to more aggressive rate cuts in the future [6] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission of China has released a new "Credit Repair Management Measures" effective from April 1, 2026, which indicates a more lenient approach to credit repair, potentially leading to increased lending by banks [5] - The broad money supply (M2) in China reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, reflecting an 8.20% year-on-year growth, suggesting that increased bank lending will contribute to a rise in market liquidity [5] - The article notes that both the U.S. and China are on a path of monetary easing, which historically has led to positive performance in asset prices such as stocks and real estate [5][6] Group 3 - The approval of the first batch of seven AI-focused ETFs in China indicates a growing channel for capital to enter the stock market, with a total of 1,365 listed ETFs and a total scale of 5.69 trillion yuan as of November 29 [5] - The article concludes that with the expected dovish stance of the new Federal Reserve chair and China's focus on stable growth and low interest rates, both countries are likely to experience a sustained period of declining interest rates, benefiting the stock market as a hedge against inflation [6]