Sora 2两月留存率接近 0%，奥特曼得学抖音快手？

Core Insights - Sora 2, developed by OpenAI, was initially seen as a revolutionary tool in the video generation space but has faced significant challenges in user retention and overall effectiveness [1][3][34] Group 1: User Engagement and Retention - Despite a strong launch with over 1 million downloads in the first week on iOS and 470,000 on Android, Sora 2's user retention rates are alarmingly low, with a 30-day retention rate of less than 1% [5][8][9] - The app's rapid decline in App Store rankings, dropping from first to fourth place within two weeks, indicates a significant loss of interest among users [6][9] - Comparatively, other social apps like TikTok and Kuaishou maintain much higher retention rates, highlighting Sora 2's struggle to convert initial curiosity into sustained usage [8][9] Group 2: Product Quality and User Experience - The quality of video generation is inconsistent, with only 5% to 10% of generated videos deemed usable, leading to user frustration [10][11] - Users face long wait times for video generation, which, combined with high failure rates, results in a poor overall experience [11][12] - The lack of advanced editing features and community engagement tools further limits user satisfaction, as users cannot modify videos directly within the app [12][18] Group 3: Business Model and Financial Viability - OpenAI's current model is unsustainable, with daily operational costs reaching $15 million, translating to approximately $4.5 billion annually [27][29] - The introduction of paid services to supplement free usage has not resolved the underlying issues of low user retention and high operational costs [26][27] - Legal challenges regarding intellectual property and content generation add complexity to the business model, as restrictions on content can negatively impact user experience [29][30] Group 4: Industry Implications - The rapid decline of Sora 2 serves as a cautionary tale for the AI video generation industry, emphasizing that technological advancement does not guarantee product success [34][35] - The industry is still in the early stages of commercial exploration, with many companies struggling to find viable business models [32][33] - OpenAI's experience highlights the need for a balance between user engagement and ethical considerations, as the pursuit of user retention can lead to potential over-dependence on addictive features [31][34]