“铜博士”起飞！供应危机带来超级行情 伦铜创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply shortages, geopolitical tensions, and structural demand driven by energy transition and AI data centers [1][11][12]. Supply Dynamics - Supply disruptions from major mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Cobre Panama mine in Chile, are leading to a tightening of global copper supply [4][5]. - Predictions indicate that global mine supply growth will be minimal, with estimates for 2026 being only +1.4%, significantly lower than earlier forecasts [4]. - The current supply situation is exacerbated by a mismatch in global copper inventories, as traders rush to ship copper to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs [4][8]. Price Movements - LME copper prices reached a historic high of $11,294.5 per ton, with a 0.9% increase, while Comex futures rose by 1.6% [1]. - The weakening U.S. dollar is contributing to higher copper prices, as it lowers costs for foreign buyers and encourages investment in hard assets like copper [10][11]. Demand Factors - The demand for copper is being driven by the growth of electric vehicles, renewable energy investments, and the expansion of data centers, which are all critical for decarbonization efforts [11][12]. - The AI boom is expected to significantly increase copper demand, with projections indicating that data centers will require an additional 47,500 tons of copper by 2026 [15]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict a clear deficit in the copper market, with expected supply gaps of approximately 330,000 tons by 2026, driven by ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand [16]. - UBS has revised its supply gap forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a significant increase in expected shortages compared to previous estimates [16].