半两财经｜年内涨幅超90% 白银价格再创新高

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, driven by various market factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing industrial demand for silver [1][3][4]. Price Movement - On December 1, 2025, spot silver prices broke through $57 per ounce for the first time, marking a historical peak. In the domestic market, Shanghai silver futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract exceeding 13,000 yuan per kilogram, reaching a high of 13,520 yuan per kilogram [1]. - Year-to-date, international silver prices have increased by over 90%, significantly outperforming gold. The price surged past $50 per ounce on October 9 and continued to rise, reaching $54.468 per ounce on October 17, before breaking through $56 per ounce on November 28 and exceeding $57 on December 1 [2]. Market Drivers - Multiple factors are driving the rise in silver prices, including an 80% increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which supports precious metals. Additionally, a weakening U.S. dollar has further contributed to this trend [3]. - The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, bolstered by the potential appointment of a dovish candidate as the next Fed chair, enhancing market confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - A decline in silver production has led to a persistent supply shortage, with global exchange silver inventories at their lowest levels in nearly a decade. Concurrently, demand from industrial sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles continues to grow, exacerbating market tightness [4]. - Despite the rapid price increase, some analysts caution that high volatility may occur due to profit-taking pressures. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, supported by stable industrial demand and limited growth in mineral supply. The current gold-to-silver price ratio of approximately 75:1 is significantly higher than the historical average of 60:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued [4].