11月中国综合PMI探底：中国经济在调整中孕育新机（一）

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is experiencing a temporary turbulence amidst a complex global economic environment, with the composite PMI output index dropping to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a new low in nearly a year. However, this decline reflects a structural adjustment and accumulation of strength rather than a comprehensive economic downturn [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector shows resilience with a PMI of 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a glimmer of hope amidst overall economic pressure [2]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) demonstrate strong vitality, with the PMI for medium-sized enterprises rising by 0.2 percentage points and small enterprises surging by 2.0 percentage points, highlighting the robust resilience of the grassroots economy [2]. - The production index has returned to the critical point of 50.0%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in manufacturing production [3]. - The new orders index has improved to 49.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a gradual recovery in market demand and an increase in enterprise orders [3]. - The employment index has slightly risen, indicating an improvement in the employment situation within manufacturing, providing a human resource guarantee for stable production [3]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points, becoming a major drag on the composite index, yet it reflects significant industry differentiation rather than a complete downturn [4]. - The service sector experiences short-term volatility, with real estate and residential services remaining at low levels, while sectors like railway transportation, finance, and telecommunications maintain high prosperity levels, illustrating a mixed performance [4]. - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization and recovery, with an increase in the new orders index indicating a growing demand for construction projects [4]. - Changes in input prices and sales prices in the construction sector reflect proactive responses to cost control and price adjustments, enhancing profitability and market competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite the temporary decline in the composite index, the fundamentals of China's economy remain solid, with stable manufacturing production, revitalized SMEs, and a high expectation level of 56.2% among non-manufacturing enterprises for the future [5]. - The current data drop is viewed as a short-term adjustment rather than a trend of decline, suggesting that the economy is seeking balance in a more nuanced and stable manner [5]. - The ongoing transformation and upgrading of the economy may be filled with challenges, but each step is directed towards a healthier and more sustainable direction [5].