升破7.07！人民币对美元汇率续创去年10月中旬以来新高

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD), reaching new highs not seen since mid-October of the previous year, driven by various economic factors and market expectations. Exchange Rate Performance - On December 1, the CNY/USD spot exchange rate broke the 7.07 mark, peaking at 7.0650, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year. The closing rate was 7.0725, an increase of 69 basis points from the previous trading day, also setting a new closing high since mid-October [1] - The onshore CNY/USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0759, up 30 basis points, the highest since October 14, 2024 [4] Economic Factors Influencing Appreciation - The macro team at GF Securities noted that the CNY's accelerated appreciation is more endogenous, particularly as the USD remained relatively strong in November. Key reasons include: - A joint arrangement reached during economic discussions in Kuala Lumpur at the end of October, reducing uncertainties in China's export environment [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes economic development and aims for a significant increase in the consumption rate, which positively influences market expectations for the CNY [5] - The central bank's issuance of 450 billion CNY in central bank bills in Hong Kong supports the strengthening of the CNY [5] - The fourth quarter typically sees a peak in corporate foreign exchange settlements, with strong export performance leading to concentrated demand for CNY conversion [5] Market Expectations - According to Industrial Research, the CNY is expected to maintain its appreciation momentum from late November, with potential opportunities arising from fluctuations in the A-share market and external risk sentiment, as well as the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]