美联储降息预期持续升温，矿业ETF（561330）大涨超3%

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has surged over 3% today and has increased by over 90% year-to-date, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly increased, rising from below 40% to over 80% this week, following dovish comments from several Fed officials [3]. - Recent economic data, including a lower-than-expected retail sales growth of 0.2% month-on-month in September and a decline in private sector jobs, supports the case for a rate cut [3]. Group 2: Performance of Mining ETF - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index by over 10% year-to-date, attributed to a more concentrated selection of leading stocks [4]. - The mining ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which consists of 37 stocks, with the top ten stocks accounting for 56.34% of the index, compared to 47.62% for the CSI Nonferrous Index, which has 60 stocks [4]. Group 3: Composition and Sector Focus - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has a higher concentration in gold, copper, and rare earths, making up 53.4% of the index, compared to 49.8% in the CSI Nonferrous Index [7]. - The focus on these sectors allows the mining ETF to better capitalize on favorable market conditions [7]. Group 4: Supply Constraints and Market Outlook - Supply constraints are a fundamental driver for the positive outlook in the nonferrous mining sector, with insufficient capital expenditure on global resources over the past decade leading to reduced supply elasticity [12]. - Low inventory levels and increased demand from manufacturing recovery and energy transition are expected to amplify marginal demand improvements [12]. - Prices for copper and cobalt are anticipated to continue rising due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpected increases in storage demand [12]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 826 million yuan, ranking first among similar index ETFs, indicating superior liquidity and investment opportunities in gold, copper, and rare earths [13][14].