华尔街打响年末收官战：美股剑指7000点大关？

Group 1 - Wall Street enters a challenging year-end with optimism after experiencing its best week in nearly six months, reversing one of the worst November performances in over a decade [1] - The S&P 500 index has recorded a double-digit increase year-to-date, driven by the rise of "seven giants" in the tech sector, a strong U.S. economy, and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market's rebound after a 19% decline over seven weeks ending April 9 is seen as a strong signal for investors, with historical patterns suggesting that mid-year double-digit declines often lead to full-year gains [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is approximately 87%, as indicated by futures prices, with the labor market becoming the Federal Reserve's primary focus [2] - The Republican tax and spending bill, effective January 1, is expected to increase spending and provide a strong combination of tax cuts and accounting changes, contributing to market optimism [2] - Recent volatility in tech stocks is viewed positively, as companies with clear AI profit paths are being rewarded, while those with weak balance sheets are losing ground [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the second half of December is typically one of the strongest periods for U.S. stocks, with an average return of 1% and approximately 70% of the time showing gains [4] - The market is currently experiencing a shift, with tech stocks giving way to sectors like healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary, indicating a broader market rally [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment among retail investors has turned cautious, with a net bearish sentiment of 42.7%, up from 36.3% at the beginning of the month, reflecting concerns over recent market volatility [5] - Seasonal factors suggest a slightly favorable market outlook at year-end, rewarding those already invested rather than those waiting for perfect entry points [5]