专访野村亚洲及印度首席经济学家：中国东盟数字经济合作将加速

Core Insights - Southeast Asian exporters are increasing prices for goods exported to the U.S., transferring some cost pressures to American consumers [1] - The U.N. Development Programme predicts a potential 9.7% decline in Southeast Asia's total exports to the U.S. due to tariff-induced price increases [1] - Despite U.S. tariff pressures, Southeast Asian economies are showing resilience, with many countries diversifying their markets away from the U.S. [1][4] Trade Agreements and Economic Cooperation - The signing of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement is expected to enhance cooperation in emerging fields, particularly in the digital economy [2] - Southeast Asian countries are seeking to diversify their exports and move from low-tech manufacturing to higher value-added sectors, leveraging China's technological expertise [2][6] Market Dynamics and Export Trends - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to create competitive pressures within Asian economies, leading to potential "hidden reforms" as countries strive to enhance competitiveness [3][4] - Vietnam may experience a significant potential decline of 19.2% in exports to the U.S., which is double the average decline expected for Southeast Asia [3] Regional Economic Integration - The CAFTA 3.0 upgrade is anticipated to facilitate supply chain upgrades and enhance regional economic integration, focusing on high-tech manufacturing [6] - The internal consumption in Asian countries is expected to grow, leading to increased intra-regional trade, particularly in intermediate products [5] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Southeast Asian central banks may gain more policy flexibility as U.S. interest rates decline, allowing them to focus on domestic economic factors [7] - Countries like Thailand may face unique challenges, including potential deflationary risks, while most Southeast Asian nations maintain positive inflation rates [8] Stock Market Performance and Investment Climate - Southeast Asian stock markets are struggling to attract foreign investment, partly due to a lack of AI-related themes and concerns over export slowdowns [9][10] - Structural reforms in the region aim to enhance market liquidity and transparency, potentially improving the attractiveness of Southeast Asian markets for foreign investors [11] Economic Resilience and Future Prospects - Despite challenges, Southeast Asian economies are expected to demonstrate resilience, with a focus on technology-driven growth and structural reforms [13] - Malaysia is highlighted as a strong performer due to robust domestic demand and infrastructure investments, while Singapore continues to benefit from its tech sector [10][11]