房价要稳定,因为一旦全面下跌,可能会带来四个危害,普通人将更难买到房子
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-01 13:18

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that a comprehensive decline in housing prices could lead to significant negative consequences for ordinary people, contrary to the belief that lower prices would benefit them [1]. Group 1: Impact on the Banking System - A significant portion of urban households, over 60%, rely on mortgages to purchase homes, making them vulnerable to becoming "underwater" if housing prices fall [1]. - An increase in mortgage defaults could destabilize the banking system, leading to a credit crunch where banks are unable to lend to potential homebuyers [1]. Group 2: Employment Consequences - The real estate sector employs a wide range of workers, from construction laborers to sales agents, and a decline in housing prices would lead to reduced development activity and subsequent job losses [1][3]. - Cities that have already experienced price declines, such as Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang, show a significant decrease in job availability in real estate-related fields [3]. Group 3: Government Revenue and Infrastructure - Many local governments rely heavily on land sales for revenue, with some cities deriving over 30% to 50% of their fiscal income from land transfer fees; a drop in housing prices would reduce land values and government income [3]. - Reduced government revenue would hinder urban infrastructure development, affecting public services such as transportation, education, and healthcare [3]. Group 4: Affordability for First-Time Buyers - Contrary to expectations, a drop in housing prices could make it harder for first-time buyers to purchase homes due to increased market uncertainty and stricter lending criteria from banks [1][5]. - Economic downturns often accompany falling housing prices, leading to job instability and reduced incomes, further complicating the ability of ordinary people to secure loans for home purchases [5]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the importance of stable housing prices, advocating for a balance where prices are not excessively high or low, to ensure a healthy market environment for banks, developers, and consumers [5]. - The current national policy aims to stabilize housing prices rather than allowing them to fall drastically, aligning with the principle of "housing is for living, not for speculation" [5].