节假日拖累，印度10月工业产出增速跌至0.4%，创14个月新低

Core Insights - India's industrial output growth slowed sharply to 0.4% in October, marking the lowest level in 14 months, indicating significant growth pressures on the economy [1][2] - The manufacturing output growth dropped from 4.8% in September to 1.8% in October, while mining and electricity production fell by 1.8% and 6.9% respectively [1][2] - The slowdown is attributed to reduced working days due to festivals like Diwali, despite the government's GST cuts aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [1][3] Industry Performance - The industrial production index (IIP) data shows a comprehensive deterioration across key sectors, with manufacturing still in positive growth but significantly down from previous months [2] - The three major sectors—manufacturing, mining, and electricity—are all experiencing a slowdown, raising concerns about the economic outlook [2] Economic Context - October is a critical month for the Indian economy, coinciding with the implementation of GST cuts on September 22, intended to boost domestic consumption and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - Despite facing a 50% tariff increase from the U.S., India's economic growth for the quarter ending in September exceeded expectations, reaching 8.2%, the highest in six quarters [3] Future Outlook - Economists remain relatively optimistic about the coming months, suggesting that robust consumer demand will partially offset weak export demand [4][5] - Strong rural income, low inflation, interest rate cuts, and tax reductions are expected to sustain healthy consumer spending, benefiting the manufacturing sector [5]