上证指数重回3900点背后：牛市的共识，远比想象中更需要时间

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a notable upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, indicating a potential shift towards a bull market, although skepticism remains among investors regarding the sustainability of this rally [1] Group 1: Formation of Consensus - The essence of bull market consensus is the shift in market sentiment from a minority of optimism to a majority belief, often triggered by positive economic fundamentals, national policies, or industry trends [2] - Initially, positive signals are often weak and only perceptible to informed investors, while ordinary investors may remain skeptical due to recent bearish market memories [2] Group 2: Challenges in Consensus Expansion - The first challenge is overcoming cognitive inertia, where investors conditioned by previous downturns may hesitate to trust new positive signals [3] - The second challenge involves the need for tangible profit generation to validate the bullish narrative, requiring consistent performance and data to attract broader participation [3] - The third challenge is breaking through key psychological and technical levels in the market, where significant price points serve as both technical barriers and psychological burdens [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - The current market is in a critical phase of consensus formation, characterized by accumulating positive signals such as the Shanghai Composite Index's recovery and increased trading volume, indicating new capital inflow [4] - However, there remains significant divergence in market sentiment, with fluctuations around key levels like 4000 points, reflecting ongoing debates about market leadership [4] Group 4: Implications for Investors - Investors are advised to maintain strategic focus and avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations, as the formation of consensus requires time and is often accompanied by volatility [5] - Emphasis should be placed on understanding the core logic driving the current market trends, rather than fixating on daily price movements, as this will provide opportunities for re-entry or portfolio optimization [5]