经济学家谈AI泡沫：过度投资、过高估值、过度持有、过度杠杆

Group 1 - The core discussion revolves around the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the U.S. economy, with AI-related capital expenditures contributing approximately 40% to economic growth this year, and potentially up to 60% when including wealth effects from the stock market [2][8] - Ruchir Sharma warns of potential bubble risks in the AI sector, drawing parallels to the 2000 internet bubble, citing signs of over-investment, over-valuation, over-ownership, and over-leverage in the current market [2][9][14] - The conversation highlights a surprising global market dynamic, where Europe and China are expected to outperform the U.S. by 2025, despite the current focus on the U.S. market [2][18] Group 2 - Sharma discusses the shift in China's private economy and technology policies, emphasizing the need for support of the private sector to compete in AI, as evidenced by Alibaba's stock performance following Jack Ma's return [3][19] - The dialogue touches on the Federal Reserve's independence and the global debt issue, with Sharma questioning the Fed's motivations for interest rate cuts amidst persistent inflation [3][21][22] - A bold prediction is made for 2026, suggesting that as the AI bubble faces risks from rising interest rates, high-quality stocks may see a resurgence, while international markets continue to outperform the U.S. [3][25][26]