瑞郎飙升央行却“躺平”？瑞银：11月恐才是“真战场”

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysis indicates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) likely did not intervene in the foreign exchange market in October to curb the appreciation of the Swiss franc [1] Group 1: SNB's Market Activity - UBS economist Florian Germanier estimates that the SNB's trading volume in October ranged from buying up to 20 million Swiss francs (25 million USD) in foreign exchange to selling up to 50 million Swiss francs, significantly lower than the 5.1 billion Swiss francs spent in the second quarter [1] - Germanier states that there are no signs of intervention by the SNB, as the data from the balance sheet does not indicate strong actions taken by officials during this period [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - In October, the Swiss franc approached a critical level of 0.92 against the euro, leading to speculation about potential currency sales by decision-makers to limit the increase, which did not occur [1] - The lack of intervention aligns with a shift from large-scale sales of the Swiss franc by the SNB to a more cautious approach [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - Germanier suggests that the SNB may have entered the market in November in response to the Swiss franc reaching a ten-year high following a trade agreement with the United States [1] - The volatility in the Swiss currency market in mid-November, when the franc reached its strongest level since the SNB removed the exchange rate cap in January 2015, may indicate potential intervention [1]