Seaport Global Reaffirms Sell on Nvidia, Warns of Rising Competitive Pressure

Core Viewpoint - Seaport Global Securities has reaffirmed a Sell rating on NVIDIA, maintaining a price target of $140, citing increasing competitive pressures and financial risks associated with the company's market defense strategies [1] Financial Analysis - NVIDIA is increasingly relying on various sales and financing mechanisms to combat rising competition, with many of these actions not fully reflected in reported financials, likely to become more significant in the upcoming year [2] - The existing $26 billion in cloud compute service agreements, viewed as support for R&D and DGX platforms, may effectively act as rebates, potentially pressuring gross margins by approximately 400 basis points next year, equating to a reduction of at least $0.30 per share in earnings [2] Competitive Landscape - Google's success in promoting third-party workloads on its TPUs, which show performance advantages over NVIDIA systems in specific use cases, is highlighted as a growing competitive threat [3] - NVIDIA's substantial balance-sheet commitments include $6 billion invested in private companies this year and $17 billion in outstanding commitments, including $5 billion to Intel, with a potential agreement with OpenAI that could add up to $100 billion more [3] Operational Insights - A notable increase in NVIDIA's working capital during the quarter is reported, with management attributing this to strong demand; however, Seaport interprets part of this rise as NVIDIA assisting its manufacturing partners with cash-flow needs [4] - Despite strong reported results, the competitive and financial pressures justify a bearish stance on NVIDIA's stock [4]