UBS Raises Ollie’s Price Target Slightly, Keeps Neutral Rating

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its price target for Ollie's Bargain Outlet to $141 from $140 while maintaining a Neutral rating, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance amid favorable conditions for closeout retailers [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS estimates same-store sales growth of 4.0%, aligning with consensus and close to the company's guidance of around 3%, but below buy-side expectations of approximately 5% [1] - The performance reflects a 730-basis-point sequential slowdown on a two-year stack and an 820-basis-point deceleration on a three-year basis, although the three-year stack remains 40–80 basis points above Ollie's results from Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 [2] Group 2: Events Impacting Sales - The Q2 2025 results were positively influenced by the company's Ollie's Days event, which contributed about 100 basis points to same-store sales, along with a second Ollie's Army Night event [2]