全球银价再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - Global silver prices have reached a historic high, with the London spot price peaking at $57.862 per ounce on December 1, indicating strong market dynamics driven by supply and demand factors [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 1, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AG (T+D) contract reached a maximum price of 13,482 yuan per kilogram, closing at 13,261 yuan, reflecting a 5.51% increase [2]. - The main silver futures contract AG2602 hit a high of 13,520 yuan per kilogram, closing at 13,278 yuan, with a 5.86% increase, while the near-month contract AG2512 peaked at 13,789 yuan, closing at 13,282 yuan, marking a 5.82% increase [2]. - Both futures contracts achieved historical high prices during this trading session [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a tightening supply situation, with a significant accumulation of supply-demand gaps over recent years, and a rise in investment sentiment [2][3]. - Current silver futures inventory stands at 573 tons, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory at 715 tons, totaling 1,288 tons, which is at a historical low [2]. Group 3: Market Changes - The correlation between domestic and international silver markets has reached unprecedented levels, with a correlation coefficient of over 0.96 between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures [3]. - Silver futures volatility has surged to 60, significantly exceeding historical averages, with multiple instances of daily price fluctuations exceeding 5% in October and November [3]. - A premium for physical silver has emerged, with the spot market showing premiums exceeding 5%, indicating a tightening supply and increasing demand in the global physical silver market [3]. Group 4: Inventory Trends and Risk Management - Recent trends indicate an increase in silver inventory, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's delivery inventory rising by 40 tons last week and an additional 14 tons on December 1 [4][5]. - In the context of high volatility in silver futures prices, the use of options strategies is recommended for risk management, providing flexibility and the ability to hedge against market uncertainties [5][6]. - Effective position and capital management are crucial for investors, who should consider their asset status, investment goals, and risk tolerance when investing in silver futures [6].