机构展望明年经济增速在5%左右

Economic Overview - In December, the economic performance for 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][3] - The economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1][3] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold [3][6] - The industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the service sector grew by 5.4% [5][6] - CPI decreased by 0.1% and PPI fell by 2.8% in the same period, reflecting weak demand [5][6] Policy Measures - The government has introduced policies to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, including the accelerated deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [3][6] - There is an expectation for more proactive macroeconomic policies to support growth in 2026, including significant infrastructure projects and fiscal measures [9][10] Future Projections - For 2026, economic growth is anticipated to remain around 5%, with a potential shift to a "low first, high second" trend due to new opportunities arising from the 14th Five-Year Plan [10][13] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase to 5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumer demand [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The export sector has shown resilience, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in exports from January to October 2025, despite external pressures [6][13] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with ongoing adjustments and a need for policy interventions to stabilize the sector [6][12]