今日金价：大家要有心理准备了，12月1日，金价或将重现2015年历史

Core Insights - The international gold market is experiencing significant attention, with London spot gold prices stabilizing around $4240.84 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 300% compared to $1184.37 per ounce a decade ago [1] - The domestic market is also active, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D price at 959.46 yuan per gram, up 1.28% from the previous day [1] - The current market volatility shows notable similarities to the patterns observed in 2015 [1][3] Market Volatility Characteristics - In 2015, gold prices exhibited a "high-low" trend, starting at around 290 yuan per gram and dropping to approximately 216 yuan per gram by December [3] - The market on December 1, 2025, displayed a similar oscillation pattern, with London gold at $4215.8 per ounce and Shanghai gold T+D at 953.2 yuan per gram [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for current gold prices, with MACD indicators signaling a potential upward movement [3][16] Monetary Policy Environment - In December 2015, the market faced pressure from anticipated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which led to a 9% increase in the dollar index, negatively impacting gold prices [5] - Conversely, by December 1, 2025, the market is expecting a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with an 87.4% probability, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [6] Changes in Market Participants - In 2015, individual investors and some institutions dominated the gold market, with central bank purchases not being a major force [8] - Since then, global central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, totaling 4171 tons since 2015, accounting for 72% of annual global gold production [8] - The trading landscape has shifted, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange now accounting for 35% of global trading volume, reflecting the growing influence of emerging markets [8] Physical Gold Demand Differences - In late 2015, physical gold demand surged as prices hit lows, with consumers recognizing gold's value preservation [10] - By December 1, 2025, physical gold demand is more rational, with high prices suppressing buying intentions, particularly in major Asian markets [10] Investor Structure and Product Innovation - In 2015, investment options in gold were limited, primarily to physical gold and a few ETFs [12] - By 2025, the market has seen significant product innovation, with gold ETFs surpassing $200 billion, providing more accessible investment opportunities [13] Technical Analysis Comparison - In December 2015, technical indicators showed a bearish trend, with gold prices below key moving averages [16] - In contrast, by December 1, 2025, technical indicators suggest a complex but generally bullish outlook, with key resistance and support levels established [16] Market Sentiment and Expectations - In December 2015, market sentiment was predominantly negative due to anticipated rate hikes, leading to a preference for dollar assets over gold [18][19] - By December 1, 2025, market sentiment is mixed, with expectations of rate cuts boosting gold's appeal while geopolitical risks drive investors towards safe-haven assets [21]