What weak consumer? Strong holiday shopping kickoff is a good sign for retailers

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season began positively despite weak consumer sentiment, with several retail stocks experiencing gains [1] - U.S. retail spending excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday, an increase from 3.4% in 2024 [1] - Online shopping sales reached a record high of $11.8 billion, up from $10.8 billion in 2024, although the growth rate decreased to 10.4% from 14.6% [1] Retail Stock Performance - Retail stocks such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters, and Bath & Body Works saw increases of 5% and 10% respectively [1] - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) gained over 1% on Monday, with a five-day gain exceeding 7% [1] - Amazon, Home Depot, TJX Companies, and Nike also showed positive performance in midday trading [1] Consumer Trends - Consumers are expected to focus on essentials and seek discounts due to inflation, benefiting retailers like Walmart and Costco [1] - Costco initiated holiday promotions early, which helped attract consumers [1] - The National Retail Federation forecasts a 3.7% to 4.2% increase in holiday sales for 2025, with total sales projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time [1] Company-Specific Insights - Amazon is highlighted as Bank of America's top e-commerce pick, benefiting from AI integration and competitive pricing [1] - TJX Companies is expected to gain market share this holiday season as consumers prioritize value [1] - Costco's performance will be assessed with its November sales report and first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 [1]