银行股“破净”七年之痛

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector in the A-share market has been a key driver of the index's performance since 2025, despite facing complex domestic and international challenges. The sector's stock price performance has been counter-cyclical, supported by a recovering capital market and improved earnings [2][3]. Financial Sector Performance - Agricultural Bank of China has seen a remarkable stock price increase of 56% this year, breaking free from the "price-to-book" constraint, which opens up new valuation possibilities for bank stocks [3][10]. - Despite the strong performance of some banks, the overall banking sector remains trapped in a "price-to-book" dilemma, reflecting valuation challenges and limiting its ability to serve the real economy [3][4]. Valuation Challenges - The banking sector has experienced a continuous "price-to-book" ratio below 1 for seven consecutive years, with the current ratio at 0.56 compared to the broader A-share index at 1.79 [4]. - Factors contributing to this prolonged "price-to-book" issue include external economic downturns, insufficient growth, narrowing net interest margins, and concerns over asset quality [4][5]. Profitability and Regulatory Environment - The net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, down 11 basis points year-on-year, which constrains profitability [5]. - Regulatory pressures on intermediary income sources and a trend of declining interest margins further limit banks' profit potential [5][6]. Impact of "Price-to-Book" on Operations - The "price-to-book" situation has created a "cascading effect," restricting banks' capital replenishment channels, limiting credit expansion, and leading to declining profitability [6]. - Banks face challenges in refinancing due to restrictions on companies that are "broken" or "underwater," making it difficult to raise capital through equity markets [6]. Strategic Shifts in Banking - Some banks have shifted to conservative operational strategies, leading to a contraction in business development and, in some cases, a "balance sheet shrinkage" [7]. - The focus on supporting the real economy and achieving financial goals requires banks to enhance their credit offerings and service capabilities [7][9]. Future Outlook and Valuation Recovery - The banking sector may be entering a long-term trend of valuation recovery, with major state-owned banks showing strong stock performance and several banks achieving historical highs [8][9]. - Analysts predict that the competitive landscape will lead to a "Matthew effect," where larger banks benefit more from policy support, while smaller banks struggle to improve valuations [9]. Stock Performance Data - As of December 1, 2025, the stock performance of various banks shows significant gains, with Agricultural Bank leading at 56.35%, followed by Xiamen Bank and Qingdao Bank with over 30% increases [10][11].