需求放缓库存承压 钢铁业倚重高端化与低碳化破局

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is experiencing a decline in apparent consumption and production, with a need for innovation and adaptation to maintain competitiveness and explore new markets, particularly in high-end products and green technologies [2][3][7][9]. Production and Consumption - From January to October, the total crude steel production in China reached 818 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, with an average daily output of 2.69 million tons [1][5]. - The apparent consumption of steel in the first three quarters of 2025 was 649 million tons, down 5.7% year-on-year, continuing a trend of decline since the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][7]. - The domestic apparent consumption has decreased from a peak of 1.04 billion tons in 2020 to an estimated 890 million tons in 2024, a reduction of 150 million tons, averaging a decline of 3.8% per year [3]. Inventory Levels - As of November 28, the social inventory of five major steel products reached 10.073 million tons, an increase of 27.82% year-on-year [2][6]. - The inventory of key steel enterprises was reported at 15.61 million tons in mid-November, reflecting a 26.3% increase since the beginning of the year [6]. Financial Performance - Among 46 listed steel companies that disclosed their third-quarter reports, 31 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, accounting for approximately 67.39% [3][4]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved compared to last year, but the foundation for profitability remains unstable due to declining demand and rising inventory levels [3]. Industry Recommendations - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) emphasizes the need for strict adherence to crude steel production control policies and the promotion of sustainable development through self-discipline and innovation [7][8]. - Suggestions for high-quality development include focusing on supply-side structural reforms, enhancing innovation capabilities, and increasing international competitiveness [8][9].