21评论丨美联储持续降息仍是大概率事件

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book serves as a critical indicator for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, especially following a prolonged government shutdown and a lack of economic data [2][3]. Economic Activity - The Beige Book indicates that most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts experienced little change in economic activity compared to the previous period, with two districts showing "moderate decline" and one showing "modest growth" [2]. - Overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined, except for high-end retail, while manufacturing activity has generally increased, although tariffs and uncertainty surrounding them remain obstacles [2][3]. Labor Market - Approximately half of the districts reported a weakening in labor demand, with wage growth remaining slow [2][3]. Price Pressures - The report highlights that rising costs due to tariffs have put pressure on manufacturing and retail sectors, leading to increased input costs [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the Beige Book's release, Wall Street interpreted the contents as a clear signal for potential "hawkish rate cuts," resulting in significant gains across major U.S. stock indices [3][4]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 11.48%, the Nasdaq by 20.22%, and the S&P 500 by 15.83% year-to-date, reflecting the market's positive response to anticipated monetary easing [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in December has surged to 85%, with expectations that the Fed will prioritize achieving a 2% inflation target while also promoting full employment and economic growth [4][5]. - There is an ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to inflation, with "hawks" advocating for a tougher stance and "doves" favoring a more lenient approach [4][5]. Economic Perspectives - There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and increase tolerance for inflation to address the evident economic slowdown [5]. - Some economists argue that inflation can lead to higher wages and costs without necessarily eroding purchasing power, suggesting that a moderate level of inflation could benefit consumption, particularly for younger, debt-laden demographics [5][6]. Leadership Changes - The impending change in leadership at the Federal Reserve has amplified the consensus for potential rate cuts, with current White House economic officials advocating for immediate action based on available data [6].