内外失策，日本经济深陷泥沼（环球热点）

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted at an annual rate of 1.8% in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The economy faces multiple challenges including weak growth, high inflation, sluggish domestic demand, and declining exports [1][2] - The government has lowered its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to the ongoing negative impact of U.S. tariffs [2] External Factors - U.S. tariffs have significantly affected Japan's exports, with a 1.2% decline in goods and services exports in Q3, contributing negatively to economic growth [2] - Japan has experienced a trade deficit for four consecutive months, with exports to the U.S. declining for seven months in a row [2] - In October, exports to the U.S. fell by 3.1%, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors, with declines of 7.5% and 49.6% respectively [2] Internal Challenges - Real wages in Japan fell by 1.4% year-on-year in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline [3] - Core inflation rose to 3% in October, continuing a 50-month upward trend, which, combined with falling incomes, has weakened consumer confidence [3] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, showed only a slight increase of 0.1% in Q3, down from 0.4% in Q2 [3] Government Response - The government announced a ¥21.3 trillion (approximately $135.4 billion) economic stimulus plan, representing nearly 3% of GDP, aimed at addressing rising prices and boosting investment in key sectors [6] - The plan includes a significant increase in general account spending, up 27% from the previous year, but has raised concerns about potential fiscal deterioration [6] - Critics argue that the stimulus lacks focus and may exacerbate inflation and government debt without addressing structural economic issues [6] Military Spending and Economic Impact - The government is increasing defense spending, with the defense budget projected to rise to 2% of GDP by FY2025, which may divert resources from economic growth [7][10] - The focus on military expansion is seen as a potential detriment to Japan's economic stability, as it may lead to increased tensions with neighboring countries [8][10] - Analysts warn that Japan's shift towards military spending could undermine its historical economic development model, which emphasized economic growth over military buildup [9][10] Diplomatic Relations - Recent provocative statements by the government regarding Taiwan have raised concerns about deteriorating relations with China, Japan's largest trading partner [8] - A decline in trade relations with China could significantly impact Japan's GDP, with estimates suggesting a potential loss of ¥2.2 trillion (approximately $14.5 billion) if Chinese tourist numbers drop [8] - The government's aggressive foreign policy may further complicate Japan's economic recovery and growth prospects [8][10]