美联储持续降息仍是大概率事件

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book serves as a critical indicator for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, especially following a prolonged government shutdown and a lack of economic data [2][3] Economic Activity - The Beige Book summarizes U.S. economic activity, labor market conditions, and pricing pressures, indicating that most Federal Reserve districts experienced little change in economic activity compared to the previous period, with two districts showing "moderate decline" and one showing "modest growth" [2] - Overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined, except for high-end retail, while manufacturing activity has increased in most districts, although tariffs and uncertainty surrounding them remain significant obstacles [2][3] Labor Market - Approximately half of the districts reported a weakening in labor demand, with wage growth remaining slow overall [2][3] Pricing Pressures - The impact of tariffs has led to rising input costs for both manufacturing and retail sectors, creating pressure on prices [2][3] Market Reaction - Following the Beige Book's release, Wall Street interpreted the content as a clear signal for a potential "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve, resulting in significant gains across major U.S. stock indices [3][4] Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in December surged to 85%, with the market anticipating a trade-off between achieving a 2% inflation target and promoting full employment and economic growth [4][5] Economic Perspectives - There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and increase tolerance for inflation to address the evident economic slowdown [4][5] - Economic theories suggest that inflation can simultaneously raise wages and costs without necessarily eroding purchasing power, which may support consumption growth, particularly among younger, debt-laden demographics [5]