TF Securities(SH:601162) 智通财经网·2025-12-02 00:04Industry - The real estate sector is experiencing a downward sales trend, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2024, with leading companies benefiting from continuous new product supply and concentration advantages [1][3] - The decline in housing prices has led to a contraction in residents' wealth perception, contributing to a defensive mindset among consumers that is likely to persist into 2025 [2] - The "good housing" concept is creating new development opportunities within the industry, potentially transforming development logic, competitive dimensions, and value chains [2] Company - The sales of real estate companies have not escaped the downward trend, but leading firms are expected to leverage their brand, management operations, and land reserve structures to achieve performance rebounds [3] - Signs of market risk appetite gradually recovering, such as the thawing of dollar bonds and accelerated restructuring, indicate an improving financing environment [3] - A significant number of leading companies may achieve early performance rebounds due to their first-mover advantages in brand and operational management [3] Valuation - The sector is still facing challenges from weak fundamentals and a lack of long-term growth narratives, but its low valuation and low holding characteristics provide a hedge against risks [4] - The sector is expected to have a high safety margin and recovery space as pessimistic expectations continue to be adjusted [4] - There is an optimistic outlook for structural trading opportunities within the sector [4]