【华西策略】联储12月降息将至，反弹行情如何演绎？

Market Review - Global stock indices experienced a broad increase, with the Nasdaq, Taiwan Weighted Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index leading the gains. In the A-share market, major indices mostly rose, with micro-cap stocks, CSI 2000, and ChiNext Index showing the highest increases. However, the total trading volume in the A-share market has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with net redemptions in equity ETFs and slight buying from margin financing. Growth stocks rebounded significantly, particularly in sectors like optical modules, AI applications, and lithium battery electrolyte, while dividend sectors such as oil, banking, and coal declined [1][2]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to December, the A-share market is expected to enter a period of layout for the year-end rally, driven by important domestic and international policy observations. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut is increasing, alleviating concerns over dollar liquidity and supporting foreign investment in Chinese assets. Domestically, key meetings in mid-December will set economic development goals and macro policy directions for 2026, with policies aimed at reducing competition and promoting consumption likely to benefit certain sectors [1][3]. Fund Flow Analysis - The inflow of incremental funds into the market has slowed, leading to an acceleration in industry rotation. Since November, the daily trading volume in the A-share market has mostly been below 2 trillion yuan, indicating a continuation of stock-based competition. As of November 27, net outflows of margin financing reached 13.9 billion yuan, marking the first monthly net outflow since May. Additionally, equity ETFs saw a net outflow of 40.9 billion yuan, particularly in technology-focused ETFs, indicating a rise in profit-taking among investors [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The PMI remains below the growth line, indicating that the A-share market's shift towards profit-driven performance will require more time. Economic indicators show weakening demand and supply, with industrial value-added output declining and real estate metrics worsening. The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 49.2%, remaining below the growth threshold for eight consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, reflecting a decrease in economic activity [3]. Policy Observation Window - The first half of December is a critical period for observing domestic and international policies, with market risk appetite expected to gradually increase. The Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut. Domestic policy meetings will also set the stage for 2026 economic goals, with expectations for new policy initiatives to drive a year-end rally, particularly in sectors focused on reducing competition, promoting consumption, and enhancing new productivity [3].