LPG期货价格难以持续上涨？

Core Viewpoint - LPG futures prices have shown significant volatility in November, with a notable increase followed by a brief correction, ultimately closing higher than market expectations, although a decline was observed on the following Monday [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The LPG market in the Far East is experiencing a supply contraction due to maintenance in Kuwait and reduced propane supply from Saudi Arabia, alongside delays in vessel arrivals [1]. - Demand is rising in Japan, South Korea, and India, with strong procurement needs from China's PDH plants and robust MTBE exports supporting butane demand [1][2]. - November domestic LPG supply is projected at 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from October, with imports around 2.7 million tons, down 220,000 tons [2]. Price Influences - The upcoming December Saudi Contract Price (CP) is expected to rise by $10 to $20 per ton, which is driving up spot prices as import costs increase [1][2]. - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the recent price increases, attributing them to short-term supply-demand dynamics rather than long-term trends [2]. Future Outlook - Continuous monitoring of domestic chemical demand and Middle Eastern gas field restarts is essential, as a 5% decrease in PDH operating rates could lead to an overall decline in domestic demand [3]. - The future trajectory of LPG futures will be influenced by multiple factors, including crude oil prices, U.S. supply and demand, and winter heating needs in the Northern Hemisphere, with a low likelihood of sustained price increases [3].