央行“轮流砸盘”，美联储砸完日央行砸！日本12月会加息吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese central bank's recent communication has significantly increased market expectations for a potential interest rate hike in December, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda that suggest a decision will be made during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market pricing for a December rate hike surged from 20% to 80% following Ueda's remarks, indicating a strong shift in investor sentiment [1]. - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen to recent highs, and the USD/JPY exchange rate has declined due to narrowing interest rate differentials [2]. - Bitcoin prices experienced a sharp decline, reflecting concerns over potential market volatility similar to that seen in December 2022 [2][9]. Group 2: Diverging Views on Rate Hike - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance to view a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, citing Ueda's unusual direct mention of the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Goldman Sachs remains cautious, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may wait for more corporate wage data before making a decision, with a January hike being more likely [3][7]. Group 3: Ueda's Statements - Ueda's comments during a meeting with business leaders highlighted the importance of gathering information on corporate wage positions ahead of the December meeting [4]. - He expressed optimism about wage growth, noting that major labor unions are targeting salary increases of 5% or more, and that corporate surveys indicate many companies plan to maintain or exceed this year's wage increases [5]. Group 4: Risks of Rate Hike - The potential for a surprise rate hike in December raises concerns about market stability, particularly given the historical context of the December 2022 market turmoil [8][9]. - The current market environment shows a disconnect between central bank communication and market expectations, heightening vulnerability to sudden policy changes [8].