财经随笔记：黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.12.2）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with significant movements in U.S. Treasury yields impacting gold's opportunity cost [2][5]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has reached 88%, driven by dovish statements from Fed officials and signs of a weakening U.S. economy [2]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant rise on December 1, with 10-year, 30-year, and 2-year yields increasing, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold [2]. - Key upcoming events include a speech by Fed Chairman Powell on December 2, which could influence market expectations, and the release of the November ADP employment report and September PCE price index [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a volatile trading pattern, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a strong bullish trend remains intact [3]. - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, suggesting continued bullish momentum, with key support levels at 4200-4195 and 4140 [3][6]. - In the four-hour chart, gold successfully broke through the key level of 4245, with potential upward paths identified, including resistance at 4264/4265 and 4275/4276 [5][6].