Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 00:32Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussions about the "AI bubble" are becoming unavoidable in the market due to the increasing scale of AI investments and ambiguous investment returns. The future of the AI industry over the next 12 months is predicted to have three potential scenarios, with a 60% probability assigned to OpenAI facing operational crises and a slowdown in AI investment rhythm, while significant breakthroughs in AI algorithms and a rebound in U.S. inflation are considered low-probability events at 20% each [1][2]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1 (20% Probability): Substantial Breakthrough in AI Algorithms - Recent advancements, such as Google's Gemini 3, have not led to a fundamental breakthrough but rather an extension of existing AGI model capabilities. The skepticism regarding the limitations of LLMs is growing, indicating that significant breakthroughs may require new paths outside the current technological framework [3]. - AI application usage among S&P 500 companies has surpassed 60%, but the application scenarios remain limited to areas like coding and customer service, with significant constraints in high-certainty and complex logic fields [3]. - Scenario 2 (60% Probability): OpenAI Facing Operational Crisis - OpenAI, as a leader in the GenAI wave, is experiencing a precarious situation as competitors like Google have surpassed its AGI model capabilities. Potential short-term impacts include a risk of losing paid users for ChatGPT, which could undermine the company's commercial foundation [4]. - OpenAI's ability to raise funds in the primary market is expected to decline significantly, leading to risks in fulfilling its massive orders (valued at $2 trillion). If OpenAI's business suffers, there may be a risk of downward revisions in performance expectations for the semiconductor and hardware sectors, while the internet and application software sectors could benefit [4]. - Scenario 3 (20% Probability): U.S. Inflation Rising and "Bubble" Bursting - Historical data suggests that significant capital expenditures can lead to resource crowding out in other economic sectors, structural inflation, and tightening financial liquidity, which are often key factors in the bursting of industry bubbles. The recovery in demand for consumer electronics and traditional data centers, along with rising capacity utilization rates in semiconductor and hardware companies, is increasing the structural inflation risks associated with AI CAPEX [5][6]. - The combination of a robust fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, alongside resilient inflation data, indicates that a rebound in U.S. inflation in the second half of 2026 is a risk that cannot be ignored. If inflation data rises, it could lead to liquidity tightening that may burst the AI bubble and push the U.S. economy into a brief recession [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the high uncertainty surrounding short-term AI technological advancements and macroeconomic expectations, it is advised that investors adopt a "watch and see" approach and consider "contrarian investing" strategies while gradually increasing allocations in application sectors such as the internet and application software [1][7].