预计玉米后市维持高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic corn prices is primarily driven by a reduction in market supply, influenced by farmers' reluctance to sell due to lower temperatures in Northeast China, which is expected to gradually change as prices rise [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Corn prices have been on the rise since November, with the main contract increasing by 7.78% over a month and a half, following a period of price decline earlier in the year [3]. - The official procurement plan initiated by the China Grain Reserves Corporation on October 16, with a purchase price of 2.06 yuan per kilogram, indicated a potential price bottom for corn [3]. - The increase in trade contract execution demand and the "north grain south transport" strategy have contributed to heightened demand, exacerbating supply shortages at northern ports [3][4]. Group 2: Farmer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Farmers are exhibiting strong reluctance to sell due to the onset of winter and rising planting costs, hoping to achieve better prices to cover increased costs for the next planting season [4]. - Prices in major production and sales areas have risen significantly, with Harbin's second-grade grain price increasing by 50 yuan per ton to 2110 yuan per ton, and prices in other regions also showing substantial increases [4]. Group 3: Regional Supply and Demand Conditions - The quality of local corn in regions like North and East China is poor, leading to increased demand for Northeast corn, which is of better quality and lower price [5]. - The reduction in corn imports, which are expected to be significantly below the 7.2 million ton tariff quota, has led to a shift from foreign trade to domestic trade, accelerating the market's grain turnover [6]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high price fluctuations due to ongoing farmer reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, and trade merchants' expectations of price increases [7]. - Key factors to monitor include weather conditions in Northeast production areas, merchant selling rhythms, market purchasing sentiment, and policy adjustments [7].