最高8000点！华尔街“2026美股预测”陆续出炉 一个比一个乐观

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market's performance in 2026, with predictions for the S&P 500 index reaching as high as 8000 points, driven by the ongoing AI boom reshaping the economy and financial markets [2][3]. Group 1: Predictions and Targets - Deutsche Bank sets a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, anticipating a return of around 15% due to stronger capital inflows, buybacks, and sustained earnings growth [3]. - FactSet reports a 13.4% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q3, with expectations of continued strong earnings and high stock valuations by 2026 [4]. - HSBC forecasts a target of 7500 points for 2026, while JPMorgan suggests that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the index could reach 7500 points, with an upside potential of 8000 points [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts a strong year ahead, estimating the S&P 500 will close at 7800 points in 2026, labeling it a "new bull market" driven by policy support and robust earnings [5]. - Wells Fargo anticipates a double-digit market increase over the next 12 months, with a target of 7800 points by the end of 2026, driven by inflation expectations and AI advancements [6]. - JPMorgan's chief strategist notes that despite concerns over AI bubbles and valuation issues, current high P/E ratios reflect expectations for above-trend earnings growth and increased capital expenditures in AI [8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic landscape is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where the stock market's performance is increasingly tied to household wealth, raising concerns about potential economic downturns [7][9]. - HSBC emphasizes that the 2026 target of 7500 points indicates a potential for double-digit gains, reminiscent of the late 1990s stock market boom, despite challenges faced by low-income consumers [9].