Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-02 01:05Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities outlines three potential scenarios for the AI industry over the next 12 months, with a 60% probability assigned to OpenAI facing operational challenges, which is considered the most reasonable outcome given current conditions [1][2]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1 (20% probability): Substantial Breakthrough in AI Algorithms - The feasibility of a significant breakthrough in AI algorithms in the short term is deemed low, despite recent advancements like Google's Gemini3, which improved existing AGI models without achieving a fundamental breakthrough [4]. - AI application usage among S&P 500 companies exceeds 60%, but remains limited to areas like coding and customer service, indicating significant constraints in more complex business domains [4]. - Scenario 2 (60% probability): OpenAI Faces Operational Crisis - OpenAI, a leader in the current GenAI wave, is experiencing a precarious situation as competitors like Google surpass its AGI capabilities [5]. - Risks include a potential loss of paid users for ChatGPT, which could undermine the company's business foundation, and a decline in its ability to secure funding, leading to fulfillment risks for substantial orders amounting to $2 trillion [5]. - If OpenAI's business falters, there may be a downward revision of performance expectations for the semiconductor and hardware sectors, while the internet and application software sectors could benefit [5]. - Scenario 3 (20% probability): Rising Inflation in the U.S. and Burst of the "Bubble" - Historical data suggests that significant capital expenditures can lead to resource crowding out in other economic sectors, structural inflation, and tightening financial liquidity, which are common factors in past industry bubble bursts [6]. - The recovery in demand for consumer electronics and traditional data centers, along with rising capacity utilization in semiconductor and hardware firms, heightens the risk of structural inflation due to AI capital expenditures [6]. - The potential for inflation data to rebound in the second half of 2026 poses a significant risk, especially in the context of upcoming midterm elections and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [6][7].