张尧浠：美降息预期持续发酵、金价多头前景乐观

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. continues to grow, leading to an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with potential for a new bull market in the future [1][6]. Price Movement - On December 1, gold opened at $4221.37 per ounce, reached a low of $4205.40, and fluctuated within the $4220-$4260 range, hitting a high of $4264.57 before closing at $4232.27, marking a daily increase of $10.9 or 0.26% [3][5]. - The price movement was influenced by the U.S. interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with the ISM manufacturing PMI for November reported at 48.2, below the expected 49, indicating a contraction for the ninth consecutive month [3][5]. Future Outlook - For December 2, gold is expected to continue its retreat from the previous day's close, with the dollar index showing signs of recovery, although the downward pressure on gold prices is anticipated to be limited due to ongoing support from interest rate cut expectations [5][6]. - Upcoming data releases, including the November ADP employment figures and the September core PCE price index, are expected to reinforce the outlook for interest rate cuts, which would support gold prices [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows a strong rebound in November, negating previous bearish patterns and enhancing bullish prospects, with a need to break above $4400 to open further upside [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices have been in a consolidation phase, with higher lows and support from the 10-week moving average, suggesting a favorable outlook for further gains [9]. - Daily charts indicate a potential short-term pullback, but numerous moving averages have turned into support levels, suggesting opportunities for bullish entries upon any dips [11]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4200 or $4185, while resistance levels are at $4265 or $4320 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $56.70 or $56.00, with resistance at $57.80 or $58.50 [11].