Core Viewpoint - CICC has revised down the revenue forecast for China Education Holdings (00839) for the fiscal year 2026 by 4% to 7.77 billion yuan, and adjusted EBITDA forecast by 1% to 4.19 billion yuan, while introducing revenue and EBITDA forecasts for fiscal year 2027 at 8.16 billion yuan and 4.42 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company's revenue increased by 11.9% to 7.36 billion yuan, which is in line with CICC's expectations; adjusted EBITDA grew by 10.5% to 4.17 billion yuan, exceeding expectations due to better-than-expected cost control [2] - The company's gross profit margin for fiscal year 2025 was 53.3%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year; adjusted EBITDA margin was 56.6%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 2: Student Enrollment and Growth - As of August 31, 2025, the total number of full-time students increased by approximately 5% to 282,000; for the 2025/26 academic year, full-time student enrollment grew by 0.2%, with higher education enrollment increasing by 2.8% [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company's total capital expenditure decreased by 45.2% year-on-year to 2.66 billion yuan; as of August 31, 2025, the interest-bearing debt ratio was approximately 26.0%, which is considered a healthy level [5] - The management indicated uncertainty regarding future dividend policies during the earnings call [5]
中金：维持中教控股跑赢行业评级 下调目标价至3.5港元