黄金早参|美制造业PMI持续萎缩，降息预期升温，金价上涨再获支撑

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to weak manufacturing data and increased probability of Hassett's election, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S. is reported at 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to its fastest contraction rate since July, while backlogged orders have seen the largest decline in seven months [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising above $4,290 before retreating to around $4,259, ultimately closing at $4,265 per ounce, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1]. - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.03%, and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.33% [1]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 87.6%, as indicated by CME's "Fed Watch" tool [1]. - Analysts note that the acceleration in the contraction of U.S. manufacturing, along with dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, is likely to support gold and silver prices in the near future [1].