金晟富：12.2黄金高台跳水如期回落！日内黄金分析参考

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and economic data on precious metals [1][2][3] Market Trends - As of December 2, gold is trading at $4225.25 per ounce, having reached a six-week high of $4264 on December 1, while silver hit a record high of $58.82 per ounce [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor supporting precious metal prices, with traders estimating an 87% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The weakening U.S. dollar has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thereby increasing demand [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including the November ADP employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, are anticipated to reinforce rate cut expectations if they show continued weakness [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is viewed as a critical moment for potential policy guidance, with a dovish signal likely to boost gold prices [2] Technical Analysis - Recent price movements indicate a potential reversal, with gold showing signs of weakness after failing to break above key resistance levels [3][5] - The analysis suggests that if gold prices drop below $4200, it could confirm a market top, while a rebound from this level could lead to further testing of highs [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold around $4225-$4230 with targets set at $4200-$4185, and long positions around $4170-$4175 with targets at $4200-$4210 [6][7] - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management and position sizing to navigate potential market volatility [6][7]