特朗普“影子主席”即将就位？鸽派悍将领跑，分裂美联储的内部战已打响

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is crucial as the U.S. economy faces significant challenges, with Kevin Hassett being the leading candidate among several others [1][2]. Candidate Overview - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with a strong probability of 79% on Kalshi, 75% on PredictIt, and 63% on Polymarket platforms [2]. - Other potential candidates include current board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former board member Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder from BlackRock [1][2]. Federal Reserve's Internal Division - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for interest rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks, while others are concerned about persistent inflation [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting is estimated at 87.6%, indicating high market volatility [3]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The new Federal Reserve leadership will not only focus on interest rates but also on broader monetary policy reforms, as emphasized by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [5]. - There is a call for the Federal Reserve to simplify its mission and reduce the complexity of its monetary policy [5]. Shadow Chair Concept - The idea of a "shadow chair" has emerged, suggesting that the new appointee may overshadow the current chair, Jerome Powell, during the transition period [6][7]. - This concept reflects concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential influence of the White House on monetary policy [6][7]. Market Expectations - Market analysts predict that Hassett's potential appointment could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, reinforcing expectations for aggressive rate cuts and putting downward pressure on the dollar [7][8]. - The Senate is unlikely to disrupt the nomination process, as the candidates mentioned do not appear radical enough to provoke significant opposition [8].