Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 03:04Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "AI bubble" has become an unavoidable topic in the market due to the increasing scale of AI investments and ambiguous investment returns [1] Group 1: AI Industry Outlook - CITIC Securities analysts predict three potential scenarios for the AI industry over the next 12 months, with a 60% probability assigned to the baseline scenario where OpenAI faces operational challenges and investment pace in the AI sector slows down [1] - The other two hypothetical scenarios, which are considered low probability events (20% each), include significant breakthroughs in AI algorithms and a rebound in U.S. economic inflation leading to a bubble burst [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Given the high uncertainty surrounding short-term AI technological advancements and macroeconomic expectations, CITIC Securities advises investors to adopt a "wait and see" approach and consider "contrarian investing" strategies [1] - The recommendation includes gradually increasing the allocation weight towards the application side, specifically in internet and application software sectors [1]