卓创资讯：12月豆粕市场驱动因素梳理

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal prices in November showed a downward trend, aligning with previous forecasts, primarily driven by rising costs from international soybean prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal in November was 3060 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton (2.68%) from October, and a slight increase of 27 CNY/ton (0.89%) year-on-year [1] - The domestic soybean meal spot basis narrowed to 31 CNY/ton by November 28, down from 40 CNY/ton on November 3, indicating a slight weakening of the spot basis [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Soybean supply is expected to tighten seasonally, with forecasts indicating soybean arrivals of 864 million tons in December, 650 million tons in January, and 450 million tons in February, leading to a downward trend in domestic supply [3] - The demand side remains robust, with high levels of pig farming inventory supporting feed demand, and an expected increase in pig feed sales in December due to seasonal factors [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The U.S. soybean market faces export pressures, with China having purchased over 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October 30, accounting for 30% of the annual import forecast [3] - The overall market is expected to see a reduction in the previously loose conditions, providing some upward momentum for soybean meal prices, although the supply remains at a relatively high level, limiting the extent of price increases [4]