Ge Long Hui·2025-12-02 03:59Core Viewpoint - The recall of MEGA has significantly impacted the gross margin and net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025, although the gross margin is expected to improve when excluding this impact. Revenue - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10% [1] - Vehicle sales revenue accounted for 25.87 billion yuan, down 37% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a decline in vehicle sales, particularly in the L series [1] - The total vehicle sales volume was 93,000 units, a decrease of 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, while the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle increased to 277,500 yuan, up 3% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Gross Margin - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the gross margin for vehicle sales was 15.5%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Excluding the estimated cost impact of the MEGA recall (approximately 1.1 billion yuan), the vehicle sales gross margin would be 19.8%, and the overall gross margin would be 20.4%, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively [2] Expenses - R&D expenses and SG&A expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.97 billion yuan and 2.77 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15% and decreases of 18%, respectively; quarter-on-quarter, R&D expenses increased by 6% while SG&A expenses remained stable [2] - The R&D expense ratio and SG&A expense ratio were 10.9% and 10.1%, with year-on-year increases of 4.8 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively [2] Net Profit - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was -620 million yuan (GAAP) and -360 million yuan (non-GAAP), reflecting losses due to the MEGA recall [2] - The GAAP net profit per vehicle was -670 yuan, while the non-GAAP net profit per vehicle was -390 yuan [3] Q4 Outlook - The company expects Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with 32,000 units delivered in October and an average of 34,000 to 39,000 units expected for November and December [3] - Total revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion yuan, with an anticipated decline in overall ASP due to an increase in i6 deliveries and a decrease in MEGA deliveries [3] Domestic and Export Growth - The i6 model has received over 70,000 orders, with approximately 6,000 units delivered by the end of October; production capacity is expected to increase to 20,000 units per month by early next year [4] - The company is also accelerating its export strategy, having opened its first overseas retail center in Uzbekistan and planning to open two more in Kazakhstan [4] Technology and Product Development - The VLA upgrade is expected to enhance consumer experience and positively impact sales, with improvements in user engagement and vehicle performance noted [5] - The company is focusing on transitioning to a model that emphasizes embodied intelligence in vehicles, moving beyond traditional electric vehicles [5] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts non-GAAP net profits of 2.31 billion, 4.96 billion, and 7.93 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -78%, +114%, and +60%, respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 61, 28, and 18 for the respective years [6]