欧盟经济迎来小幅回暖

Economic Outlook - The European Commission forecasts a GDP growth of 1.4% for the EU and 1.3% for the Eurozone in 2025, with similar growth rates expected in 2026 [2] - The EU's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.5% year-on-year in Q3 2023, while the Eurozone saw a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year growth [2] Economic Performance Disparities - Economic performance among EU member states shows significant divergence, with Sweden leading at 1.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, while Germany and Italy reported zero growth [3] - Southern European countries like Spain and Portugal have shown improved economic performance, contributing positively to the overall EU growth [3][4] Sectoral Contributions - Spain's tourism sector has rebounded, receiving over 66.8 million international visitors in the first eight months of the year, supporting its economic growth [4] - France's economy grew by 0.5% in Q3 2023, driven by investment and exports, particularly in the aerospace sector [4] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained key interest rates, indicating a flexible approach to monetary policy amid economic recovery and declining inflation [6] - Eurozone inflation is expected to decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, influenced by falling energy prices [7] Structural Challenges - The EU faces significant structural issues, including high public debt and an aging workforce, which may hinder long-term economic growth [8] - The EU's fiscal deficit is projected to rise due to increased defense spending, with public debt as a percentage of GDP expected to increase from 84.5% in 2024 to 85% in 2027 [8] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Trade barriers have reached historical highs, and geopolitical tensions could exacerbate supply shocks, impacting economic activity [9] - The EU's economic growth is also threatened by uncertainties in global trade policies and potential geopolitical conflicts [9]