12月债市有哪些看点?——华创资管债券日报 2025-12-2
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 05:38

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in interest rates, influenced by weak PMI data and a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion from the central bank, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [1] - Key upcoming events in December, including the Politburo and economic work meetings, are expected to set the tone for economic policies in 2026, with a high probability of maintaining a growth target of around 5% [1] - The central bank's actions to counter year-end liquidity fluctuations will be crucial, as historical trends suggest large-scale liquidity injections in December or early January to address year-end funding needs [2] Group 2 - Regulatory policies regarding fund management are under scrutiny, with potential adjustments in fee structures that could impact the public fund industry and lead to preventive redemptions by clients [3] - Despite uncertainties in the bond market, assets with safe-haven characteristics are likely to benefit in a context of global economic downturn and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The bond market is currently facing upward pressure on interest rates, with short-term rates remaining stable and long-term rates showing slight increases, indicating a search for support at the upper end of the trading range [5]