邓正红能源软实力：风险局势给石油市场带来新的不确定性 地缘溢价推升油价

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risks, including the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela, have led to an increase in oil prices due to supply disruptions and heightened market uncertainty [1][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the CPC Attack - The CPC is crucial for Kazakhstan's oil exports, transporting an average of 1.6 million barrels per day this year, and the attack has severely damaged one of its loading facilities, halting operations [2][3]. - The attack on the CPC has resulted in a supply disruption equivalent to 2% of global oil exports, significantly impacting the global oil market [3][6]. - Following the attack, international oil prices rose, reflecting market concerns over supply interruptions, which aligns with the concept of geopolitical risk premium [3][5]. Group 2: U.S. Military Threat to Venezuela - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally, estimated at 300 billion barrels, and is projected to reach a production level of 1.105 million barrels per day by September 2025, the highest since 2018 [4]. - The U.S. military's increased presence in the Caribbean poses a direct threat to Venezuela's oil production and adds instability to the global energy market [4][6]. - Historical precedents of military interventions in oil-producing countries, such as Iraq and Libya, highlight the potential consequences for energy markets and production stability [4][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risk Premium Mechanism - Current oil price fluctuations are influenced more by geopolitical factors and market expectations than by traditional supply-demand dynamics, as seen in the CPC attack and U.S. military threats [5][6]. - Geopolitical events have injected a new risk premium into oil prices, which are currently estimated to include a geopolitical premium of $5 to $8 per barrel [5][6]. - The oil market is transitioning from a focus on hard power to soft power dynamics, emphasizing the importance of rule-making and expectation management in shaping market behavior [5][6].