【中金外汇 · 年度展望】宽松交易或回归

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The global foreign exchange market has been significantly influenced by tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate since 2025. The dollar index experienced a notable decline in the first half of 2025, followed by stabilization in the latter half, with expectations of further movements in 2026 driven by interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite. Group 1: 2025 Overview - The dollar index fell significantly in the first quarter of 2025 due to weaker-than-expected tariff policy advancements by the Trump administration, reversing the "Trump trade" [1] - In the second quarter, the dollar experienced a sharp decline driven by unexpected "reciprocal tariffs" and escalating US-China trade tensions, raising concerns about the US economic outlook and the stability of dollar assets [1][5] - The dollar stabilized in the third quarter as the US reached tariff agreements with major trading partners, alleviating market concerns about economic and financial stability [1][5] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The narrowing of interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite are expected to become the main themes in currency trading for 2026 [2][19] - The Federal Reserve's potential for more aggressive rate cuts compared to other non-US central banks may lead to a further decline in the dollar's volatility center [2][19] - The performance of different non-US currencies is likely to diverge, with the euro expected to lead due to improved economic growth dynamics in the Eurozone [3][19] Group 3: Renminbi (RMB) Dynamics - The RMB's exchange rate will be influenced by the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a stable exchange rate policy potentially impacting the RMB's trajectory [3][41] - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately as the Fed's rate cuts narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US [3][41] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and financial markets under tariff pressures has reduced the impact of tariff risks on the RMB [3][41][64] Group 4: Currency Performance and Strategies - High-yield currencies from Latin America and Europe have performed relatively well, supported by favorable interest rate differentials and lower volatility [12][13] - The carry trade strategy has been the most profitable forex trading strategy in 2025, indicating a return to traditional trading logic based on interest rate differentials [13] - The euro is expected to benefit from reduced need for aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank, while the yen and pound may face relative weakness due to domestic policy pressures [3][38][39] Group 5: External Factors and Risks - The US government shutdown and tariff rate fluctuations pose risks to market stability and may increase volatility in the forex market [32][33] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan, as well as geopolitical factors like the Ukraine conflict, could also impact global risk sentiment and currency performance [32][36] - The overall environment is expected to favor a gradual appreciation of the RMB, supported by the internationalization of the currency and a stable economic outlook [62][76]