长江证券范超：建材行业供给端现积极变化，出海与存量更新成新增长点

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares as global capital flows into the market, despite the current low expectations and holdings in the construction and building materials sector [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the demand side of the real estate downturn, but significant changes are occurring on the supply side, including improvements in competitive dynamics and increased concentration among leading companies [3][8]. - The supply-side clearing has enhanced the operating environment and pricing power of surviving companies, laying the groundwork for the next phase of development [4][8]. Group 2: Emerging Industry Trends - The "going out" trend is noteworthy, as China's manufacturing sector still holds significant management advantages over overseas counterparts. Africa and South America present vast market opportunities, with some leading companies already achieving good performance abroad, yet current market valuations remain low, indicating potential for revaluation [5][9]. - The rise of the "stock" market is also significant. Excluding rural areas, urban China has a stock housing area of approximately 30-40 billion square meters. With a 30-year renovation cycle, this generates over 1 billion square meters of stock renewal demand annually, while new construction is around 500 million square meters per year. This substantial potential for stock renewal could effectively offset the downturn in new construction, suggesting that the overall adjustment in the real estate market is nearing its bottom [5][9].